I’m not smarter than you are… okay, maybe just a tad. But, when it comes to my accuracy success in football and baseball, it’s about the process. Sigh, I know, “process over results” and all that cliché stuff. The truth is that the process is behind my success, and it can help you be a better player as well… if you take the time.
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Base Info
You’ve likely heard me say, “I rank to my projections.” That is 100% true… in the end. However, during the process, I manipulate the projections’ source data. That could be the result of my analyst brain seeing something on video, reading news/team reports and/or player movement/role changes.
For example, my projections include at-bats and contact rate in baseball ( andtouches and production in football), and if I believe someone is set for regression and/or will receive more/less playing time, I’ll tweak the base information.
What you choose to use for your projections can differ. No one formula is perfect. I have several data source factors, which include past performance, playing time, career norms and how sustainable the variance from the league norm is, several metrics (barrels, expected statistics, etc.) and more. With baseball, we might differ on which metrics we feel carry more value and predictability, but again, this is why I say that I might not be smarter than you. I’m always looking to test and learn more with metrics — finding which carry high predictability is crucial.
Ranking Properly for Baseball: Z-Score
With baseball, it might seem that rankings would be impossible because how do you determine whether 25 home runs or 25 stolen bases are more valuable? Baseball players are actually pretty easy to rank accurately, if you know how. That’s because baseball rankings are all about the stats, which produce a projected ranking that will be correct nearly all of the time… again, if your projected stats are correct first.
There are a few methods out there, but the one that I have found the most successful is Z-Score. If you want an in-depth explanation, there are several sites that explain Z-Score in various uses, outside baseball. Back in 2011, Zach Sanders wrote a three-part piece on Fangraphs simplifying it for baseball, but it can still be a lot to take in, and I’ve even tweaked it a bit myself… but, it’s where I started.
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I’ll do my best to explain it in a more concise and simpler version.
Z-Score takes each statistic and weighs it against the replacement value. So if Player A hits 25 home runs, and the average replacement value for home runs is 15, he’d have a gap of 10, while Player B stealing 25 bases could have a gap of 15 because the replacement value is lower. It’s more complicated than that, but this is a nice starting point.
So, Z-Score takes the gap at Runs, RBI, Home Runs, Stolen Bases and Average, adds them up (some could have negative values), to get an overall score. For pitchers, it’s obviously ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts and Wins or Saves (depending on if starter or reliever).
Here’s the kicker (#BanKickers) — the replacement value is different by statistic and position, and you still might need to move the target higher or lower yearly. Again, for the easiest comparison, the replacement value of a catcher is going to be extremely lower than an outfielder.
I personally use ADP to help determine what the likely category help would be and how deep to go at a position for replacement values. A perfect example of this would be the home run explosion and loss of speed. Five years ago, stolen base replacement was higher and home runs lower. After last year, the home run gap has lessened, while stolen bases are harder to find.
Sanders’ piece suggests how deep to go at each position, but that’s now nine years old, and again, I believe you should be adjusting the (moving) target yearly.
Once you have all of the Z-Scores, you just sort by score, and boom! You now have rankings by position, overall, combined positions — whatever you chose. You can even rank hitters and pitchers together (once you also adjust for the 70/30 split – or whatever level you like – between the two).
Building a Team
Now let’s talk team success. Most everyone just wants the secret to rankings accuracy, but just as with football, if you simply went down the list and always took the BPA (Best Player Available), you’d likely have a team that would struggle to contend. Even if you took the VBD (Value Based Drafting) approach, you could easily be sorely lacking in a category or two.
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As with football again, I don’t always pick the player ranked higher, as you need roster construction evaluation.
In other words, it doesn’t matter if you win RBI by one or 40, you still get 12 points in Roto (15 for 15-team league, etc.).
Ignoring roster construction will doom your team from the start, so if you’re in Round 10, and you already have enough power to contend, drafting a 30-SB threat over a player with a higher overall Z-Score might make more sense. This isn’t a new revelation, but too many owners don’t pay attention as the draft unfolds. I personally have a spreadsheet with my projected totals and track the other teams for comparison (less importance, but still a good barometer that can also suggest how owners might lean with their upcoming picks).
A Few Final Notes
- Pay Attention to ADP and AAV (Average Auction Value): They aren’t perfect, but they’re good barometers for when players normally come off the board and their costs. This way, you know that you can wait an extra round if you value a player higher than the ADP by a large margin, or you can throw out a player you don’t like and watch the others blow part of their budgets.
- Don’t overreact to spring training. We say this every year, but the amount of quantifiably usable information from spring is extremely low. Health, revamped pitching approach, adjusted hitting stance, etc. are a few things worthy of your attention. After all, do you remember who led the league in spring training homers last year? Jung-Ho Kang. Lewis Brinson and Ronald Guzman also had hot springs… how’d that turn out? Ask Tyler Glasnow if he thinks the 10.38 ERA in 13.0 IP mattered for his season, or Lucas Giolito and his 8.84 ERA.
- Mock draft as much as you can/want/can stand to do it. The more you run through mock drafts (with people that actually care and not 80% of the league hitting auto-draft by Round 8), the more you can get a sense of when you might need to pounce on “your guys.” Also, the NFBC ADP is a good source, going back to the first point and if you can’t mock much.
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(Top photo: Rob Tringali/Getty Images)
Jake Ciely is rankings: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Baseball, candy, movies, video games, cereal... anything! Truly, Jake is a ranking prodigy. Oh, he's also the senior fantasy writer for The Athletic, an award-winning analyst and loves DuckTales. Make sure you #CheckTheLink and #BanKickers ... woo-oo! Follow Jake on Twitter @allinkid
